Class Projects

Project One: Ongoing Tropical Weather Forecasting and Validation

In addition to the daily tropical storm discussion, the second part of Friday's class will be given over to team forecasts for the global tropics. Whenever and whereever there is a tropical storm, these forecasts must include track and intensity change forecasts. You are also expected to evaluate the likelihood of tropical cyclogenesis in each region for each forecast time. In addition, each team has been assigned two tropical stations. You will be expected to produce forecasts for each of these stations each Friday.
Each class member will be expected to keep a log in which these forecasts are recorded and later validated by the individual. You may choose to do this as a homepage or a written log. I can and will call on these logs at any time.
Remember that I have assigned a significant portion of the grade to this task for good reason.
Each forecast will include:

A 48h forecast for each of your team's tropical sites, including (i) maximum and minimum temperatures for each day, (ii) 24h cumulative precipitation, and (iii) cloud cover/some indication of present weather.

Track and intensity tendency forecasts on all active tropical storms.

Potentials for tropical cyclogenesis in each ocean basin.
The last forecasting day is Monday, 17 November (next Monday). Final forecast logs will be due on Thursday, 20 November 1997.

Project Two: Regional Studies of the Global Tropics

This is an individual project, in which each member of the class researches a region of the global tropics (or a particular weather phenomenon not taught in great detail in class). You are expected to produce a written paper, as well as a 15 minute presentation to the class. The written paper for this project is due in FINAL form on Monday, 24 November at 5pm. NOTE that this is the same day as the first draft of Project Three. You have plenty of warning, so don't leave everything to the last minute!

Project Three: Temporal Evolution of the Tropics

Each student will be expected to track the temporal evolution of some aspect of the tropics. Forecast teams will decide among themselves (I will mediate if you can't get it organized!) which member will take one of each of their two stations. The remaining person will take the tropical cyclone summary for the season. Each team will be responsible for reporting on a different basin (see the teams page for assignation). The fourth member in Team Three will report on the evolving El Nino. Each person will hand in 12 copies of their report by Monday, 24 November. All class members will be expected to have read all reports by class time on Monday, 1 December. We will meet in an informal discussion setting on that day and explore these reports of the tropics and the implications of what you have learned.Students will critique each other's reports at this time. After the class you will have the opportunity to rework your report, due in FINAL form on Wednesday, 3 December at 5pm.

Project Due Dates

Project One (Forecast Log)	Thursday, 20 November
Project Two (Term Paper on Phenomena)	Monday, 24 November
Project Three (Climatology of Forecast Site)	Monday, 24 November
Project Three (Revised)	Wednesday, 3 December

Assessment

Midterm exam 15%
Forecasting (group work) 30%
Forecast Validation (individual work) 10%
Regional studies 25%
Global picture 10%
Class participation 10%

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Course Highlights

We will bring the Atlantic hurricane season to a close a little early, with a visit from Dr Lixion Avila for the departmental seminar on Thursday, 13 November. Dr Avila is an operational hurricane forecaster at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. He will also visit the class, giving us a summary of, and a context for, this year's hurricane season.

We began the semester with a talk by Dr John Diercks, of Penn State's Department of Meteorology. Dr Diercks spoke on his experiences as the Director of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center on Guam. (Friday, 29 August at 1:15pm)

Dr Hugh Willougby, Director of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) visited the department 8-10 October. NOAA is the parent body for the National Weather Service. Dr Willoughby's professional expertise includes research on Atlantic tropical storms and hurricane hunting.
Dr Willoughby presented the departmental seminar (on tropical cyclone intensity theories) and spoke at the PSUBAMS meeting (on the evolution of observing platforms for aircraft observations of hurricanes). He also visited the tropical meteorology class to discuss tropical cyclogenesis.

Ms Sytske Drury explored Eliassen's balanced vortex in class on Wednesday, 29 October. Use of this balance model to understand the sensitivities of tropical cyclones and the global circulation (both) to heat and momentum sources was discussed.

On Thursday, 6 November, Dr Kevin Trenberth of the Climate and Global Dynamics Group at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) presented the departmental seminar on the El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon (including discussion of the present El Nino). He also visited the class.

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Current Announcements

Midterm exams will be returned in class on Friday, 14 November.

Thursday class to meet with Dr Lixion Avila (13 November) is in Room 511 from 2-3pm.

Due to University policy, there will be no tropical meteorology class on Wednesday, 26 November.

Revised plans for Project 3 are now available on the homepage.

Project 2 talks are nearing completion.

Weather discussions on activity in the tropics are now completed.

Please email me your final list of homepage URLs for this class.

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Tropical Cyclone Definitions

• Definitions of basic terms
• Axisymmetric wind and temperature perturbations for Hurricane Hilda (taken from Hawkins and Rubsam 1968).
• Frequently Asked Questions about Tropical Storms (by Dr Chris Landsea)
• Saffir-Simpson Scale
• Dvorak Satellite Analysis Technique

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Dr Evans general homepage

Last Updated: 12 November 1997