Abstract:
First, I will summarize the current state-of-the-art knowledge of tropical cyclone (TC) projections for the near-term and the end of the 21st century, including a discussion on the biases in climate models such as the tropical Pacific. In the second part of the talk, I'll focus on the modulation of the tropical cyclone (TC) activity by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on interannual time-scales. In order to simulate this relationship, models need to reproduce the characteristics of ENSO, TCs, as well as the TC modulation on various ENSO phases. Using a variety of model types (global climate models, TC synthetic models) and diagnostics, we will examine the ENSO-TC relationship in historical and future climates and how TC risk is affected by ENSO.